External Debt and Economic Growth in Mauritania: An ARDL Time-Series Analysis (1970–2023)

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of external debt on economic growth in Mauritania over the period 1970–2023 using an ARDL model applied to time-series data from the World Development Indicators. Within the theoretical framework of debt overhang and the crowding-out effect, the study explicitly distinguishes the effect of the debt stock from that of debt service. The econometric results confirm the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between external debt and growth. The debt stock has a significant negative effect on GDP growth, while debt service also has a negative, albeit more moderate, impact. Conversely, domestic savings and gross fixed capital formation significantly stimulate growth. Trade openness appears unfavorable, reflecting primary specialization and external vulnerability, while an appreciation of the real exchange rate supports economic activity. These results argue for prudent debt management, increased domestic savings and better resource allocation to support sustainable growth.